News photo by Josh Jambor Mrs. Paquette’s class from Wilson Elementary School enjoying the warmer spring weather at Bay View Park on Friday afternoon.

ALPENA – The National Weather Service forecasts a warming trend throughout the weekend for Northeastern Michigan, followed by an active weather pattern that could bring showers and possible thunderstorms early next week.

Dry and mostly sunny conditions dominate through Saturday, with a slim chance of rain showers on Saturday afternoon. A more active system arrives Sunday night into Tuesday, bringing likely showers and a chance of thunderstorms, especially Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Michael Boguth explained the forecast for the next few days, what to expect, and what to watch out for.

“There are some small chances this weekend for some rain, you can’t rule out a possible chance, more likely than not it will stay dry,” Boguth said. “Sunday throughout the day looks dry, until we reach Sunday night into Monday, that will be our best chance for rain and possibly thunderstorms.”

“I do not think it will be a widespread rain event, the thunderstorms will be hit and miss in the Alpena area,” Boguth added.

Overnight lows will stay well above freezing, with the coldest overnight temperature expected to be in the 40’s. No frost or freeze warnings are anticipated through at least mid-next week.

“Not seeing any frost possibilities directly, I would be cautious though we could still see some cold snaps, but I am not seeing anything that says we will get any type of frost or freeze in the next week,” Boguth said. “I might hold off a little on getting the garden started, but hopefully soon we will be all clear as it relates to frost or freezing temperatures.”

Typical mid-May high temperatures in Alpena average around 57-67 degrees, with lows near 42 degrees. This weekend’s warmer-than-normal readings represent a nice early-season warm spell before a more typical cooldown mid-week.

“The weather is about normal for this time of the year, Monday will be warm, some of the more inland areas around Alpena could hit 90 degrees, which would be near the record of 94 degrees reached on May 16, 1962,” Boguth said. “After Monday we will see more typical weather, it will be a little up and down temperature wise but nothing extreme in the week ahead.”

Today, south to southwest winds will increase with waves building to two to five feet at times. Boaters should exercise caution over the weekend as winds strengthen ahead of the next system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for near-shore areas.

“There will be gusty winds at times throughout the weekend, winds today could reach up to 20 knots at times,” Boguth said. “Sunday night into Monday is probably the biggest concern with that weather system moving into the area.”

With temperatures warming up, now is a great time to get outside and plant gardens, take a hike, or launch your boat. However, Boguth has a few precautions you should consider to keep yourself and the community safe while enjoying the outdoors.

“I think the number one piece of advice I can offer as people begin to enjoy more time outdoors camping and things like that is fire safety,” Boguth explained. “I just spoke with the Department of Natural Resources recently about the fire in Presque Isle County that grew rather quickly because of all the fuel in the woods from the damage sustained in the ice storms in the last couple years.”

“I think the number one precaution is, if you are going to do any type of burning during this nice weather, take the appropriate actions, make sure you can burn, and if you are going to burn make sure you have a safety precaution in place to put out the fire just in case,” Boguth added.

The extended forecast is pointing to a Memorial Day Weekend that will have temperatures in the high 50s to lower 60s, with only a small chance of rain. The models could change as the holiday nears however.