Lack of September rain increases drought risk

News Photo by Steve Schulwitz Mable Lund holds her dog Oscar and pets Jules while at the dog park in Alpena on Thursday. There was a cool breeze off of Thunder Bay, but temperatures are expected to be more summerlike for the weekend.
ALPENA — The amount of rain the Alpena area received in September was more than two inches below the historical average and if the current dry pattern continues, it could increase the threat of drought in Northeast Michigan.
On Wednesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) released its preliminary weather data for last month and it shows that Alpena only received three-quarters of an inch of precipitation in September. That is well below the long-term average of 2.84 inches the area typically receives.
The brunt of Alpena’s rain fell on Sept. 21 when 0.31 of an inch was recorded at the Alpena County Regional Airport.
There is little to no chance of rain forecasted until Monday when there is only about a 40% chance of precipitation. There is also a 60% chance of precipitation on Tuesday before the odds of rain drop dramatically again.
The area has been without significant rain for many weeks and the threat of drought is increasing.
Last year and early this year, most of Northeast Michigan was in severe drought, but the drought tag was removed after the rain and thaw in the spring saturated the ground.
However, drought is becoming an issue once more, as it is beginning to creep further into Northeast Michigan.
On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor, which monitors and grades the level of drought in the United States, classified parts of Alcona County as being in D0, which means it is abnormally dry. If the dry pattern continues, it is likely Alpena County and other nearby counties could also see their drought levels increased.
The Alpena area was classified as D2, which is considered extreme drought for many months last year and the early part of 2025.
Temperure-wise, the weather in Northeast Michigan was on par with historical averages, but much cooler than September of last year.
Last month, the average high temperature in Alpena was 70.9 degrees, which was only a sliver over the 71 degree historical average. Last month’s average high temperature was far below last September however, as NWS data shows the average high temperature was 76.8 degrees. In September 2024, temperatures climbed to at least 80 degrees 11 times. Last month, the 80-degree mark was only reached one time.
The overall average temperature in September was 59.5 degrees, which was a touch higher than the 59-degree long-term average.
October seems to be off to a warmer than normal start this year. High temperatures are expected to be in the high 70s today and in the low 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will begin to drift downward on Monday and dip as low as the mid-50s by midweek.
Steve Schulwitz can be reached at 989-358-5689 or sschulwitz@TheAlpenaNews.com. Follow him on X @ss_alpenanews.com.