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1st House keeps being interesting

The 1st Congressional District in Michigan always has been interesting. It is a district made up of hard working people who relish their quality of life, lean conservative and who – percentage wise – have an abnormally high amount of them receiving some type of assistance check from the federal government each month.

It is a district that adopted an Upper Peninsula police officer as its congressman for many years, and kept re-electing him year after year because of his conservative leanings and moral compass. It was the deep Catholic roots of Bart Stupak that kept him wrestling with abortion language contained in initial versions of the Affordable Health Care Act, yet in the end it was this congressman from the U.P. who provided the last needed vote in the U.S. House to make President Barack Obama’s signature bill the law of the land.

It also was the legislation that marked Stupak’s end in office, as the next election residents sent another Yooper, this time a Tea Party doctor of the RepublicanParty to Washington with one simple message: “Enough is enough.”

Over the last decade the district often is viewed on the national front as a key barometer for the mood of the country, and a swing district for control of the House. This year it appears to be no different.

Interestingly, however, is what impact the two presidential candidates might have on this year’s 1st Congressional race. And, how will District voters impact the fortunes of the presidential aspirants?

As the 1st Congressional candidates have visited the newspaper’s office for interviews, I have asked each if they had the chance, would they want to share a podium with the presidential candidate of their party at a rally in the District? The answers have varied and at best, have been rather luke warm.

Certainly that perspective is indicative of the feeling in the District, as evidence by a recent news report from MIRS – in my estimation one of the best Capitol news services in Michigan. I receive weekly updates by MIRS staffers through the Michigan Press Association, and I find those weekly reports insightful and interesting.

In a report from Aug. 26, MIRS staffers shared there is a high rate of “dissatisfied” party members in both Republican and Democrat camps in the 1st Congressional District. Their analysis stems from findings done by a research firm known as Deep Root Analytics.

MIRS reported there are more “dissatisfied” Democrats in the 1st, than any other Congressional district in Michigan. In the 1st, 23 percent of registered Democrats have, according to the findings, a strong chance of splitting their ticket and voting for someone other than Hillary Clinton.

While the numbers of “dissatisfied” Republicans aren’t as high as the Democrats, 14 percent of registered GOP voters were likely not to vote for Donald Trump.

All this is being closely monitored by the campaign staffs of Democrat Lon Johnson and GOP challenger Jack Bergman.

While normally a candidate would be excited to have a presidential candidate roll through the district, with numbers like these one wonders whether it would help or hurt Johnson and Bergman.

It has been a strange, strange election year. As evidence by these numbers, voters in northern Michigan aren’t very impressed.

Bill Speer can be reached via email at bspeer@thealpenanews.com or by phone at 354-3111 ext. 331. Follow Bill on Twitter @billspeer13. Read his blog, More BS?(Bill Speer) at www.thealpenanews.com.

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