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Aging Shiite cleric a powerhouse in Iraq. Now what comes after?

NAJAF, Iraq (AP) — When Iraq’s top Shiite cleric underwent surgery for a fractured bone last month, it sent shivers around the country and beyond. “May God heal Iraq,” read a photo of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that circulated online.

Frantic supporters shared prayers. Anti-government protesters hung photos of the black-turbaned cleric with a long white beard and bushy eyebrows, declaring, “The hearts of the revolutionaries are with you.” Al-Sistani’s well-wishers included officials from both Iran and the United States, the bitter rivals for influence in Iraq.

The incident put into focus the question: what will happen after al-Sistani, who turns 90 this year, is gone? The question has gained added importance for an Iraq deeply embroiled in U.S.-Iranian tensions and gripped by months of anti-government protests.

Al-Sistani’s death would rob Iraq of a powerful voice whose sway among followers and positions against foreign intervention are believed to have curbed further Iranian influence. He sought to restrain Iranian-backed Shiite militias accused of abuses and moderate the government, repeatedly stating that the Iraqi people are the source of authority.

Iran, analysts say, will likely try to exploit the vacuum to expand its influence among Iraq’s Shiites.

The Iranians “don’t want another al-Sistani … They don’t want somebody who is strong, who overshadows their own supreme leader,” said Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council. While none of al-Sistani’s potential successors are “in Iran’s pockets,” Tehran can benefit from a weak figure.

“If this person is silent and doesn’t intervene, people will look elsewhere for guidance,” Kadhim said.

Iran’s post-al-Sistani ambitions may be complicated by Iraq’s wave of protests since October, which showed a vein of resentment among Shiites to Tehran’s power. Many Iraqis have also been angered at how U.S. and Iranian hostilities have played out on their soil, including last month’s U.S. drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

One cleric in the Shiite holy city of Najaf said he felt “scared for Iraq” when he learned of al-Sistani’s surgery. When he dies, Iran could use its “revolutionary slogans” to try to attract followers to its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he said.

But he argued that al-Sistani’s support for peaceful protesters strengthened Najaf’s hand among the public against Iran’s forays. “Things weren’t that complicated for Iran” before, he said.

Al-Sistani has been a counterweight to Iran, not only in politics. He represents a school of thought in Shiism opposed to direct rule by clerics, the system in place in Iran, where Khamenei has the final word in all matters.

Al-Sistani and Khamenei both hold the rank of “marja taqlid” — or “object of emulation,” a figure that pious Shiites revere as a spiritual guide. But the majority of Iraq’s Shiites follow al-Sistani, as do many in Iran and around the world.

Fending off Iran is a concern for many in the Najaf Hawza, the esteemed institution of Shiite religious learning from which al-Sistani’s successor will emerge.

“Iran … wants a political stance (in Iraq) that supports it,” said a senior cleric there. “It’s the Hawza that creates balance. Politicians have lost that balance. If the Hawza loses it too, then Iran will have won both on the religious front and on the political front.”

Another senior cleric said “it would be stupid not to worry” about Iran. “But it’s all about resistance. Either an outside body can penetrate, or you can stop it.” All the clerics spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity surrounding succession and because Hawza senior clergy rarely talk to the media.

Al-Sistani doesn’t make public appearances and doesn’t deliver sermons — his messages are put out by intermediaries.

He has been recovering from his surgery and this month has resumed receiving visitors at his modest home near Najaf’s gold-domed Imam Ali Shrine.

An AP reporter had a rare visit with him in July. With a scorching Najaf sun beating down, scores lined up outside the narrow alley leading to his home. In a sitting room, al-Sistani spoke with the reporter softly and deliberately in accented Arabic, a relic of his Iranian origin. A dark robe draped around his slender, slightly hunched figure, he made eye contact and gesticulated with one hand, seemingly in good health.

Despite the modest trappings, al-Sistani is a larger-than-life figure to whom millions of Shiites look for guidance on even the smallest questions of life.

Under his leadership, the Hawza’s ranks swelled after dwindling under the repressive rule of Saddam Hussein. Would-be Shiite clerics from around the world flock to the Hawza, learning from the faith’s most respected scholars, whose influence in turn resonates around the Shiite community. Religious classes are dispersed among mosques or buildings in the run-down alleys of Najaf’s Old City.

The Hawza prides itself on in its independence, governed by centuries-old traditions and unwritten rules. Status is earned by years of building up a reputation for religious knowledge and respect among students and peers.

The system for al-Sistani’s succession is complex and informal: no one is “appointed” and there won’t be an immediate declaration of a successor. It can take months or even years until one cleric garners enough followers and influence to gain consensus as the new leading “object of emulation.”

A group of the Hawza’s eminent clerics known as “Ahl al-Khibra” or “the people of expertise,” guide the process, steering the faithful toward a figure based on piety and superiority of knowledge.

The most likely contenders, if they outlive al-Sistani, are two grand ayatollahs — Afghan-born Mohammed Ishaq al-Fayadh, who is 89 or 90, and Najaf-born Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim, who is in his 80s. Given their advanced age, observers have floated possible candidates from the younger generation.

Al-Sistani’s influential son, Mohamed Reda, could play a role in shaping the succession if he threw his weight behind a candidate who he thinks will follow in his father’s footsteps, said Baghdad-based analyst Sajad Jiyad. “It’s important for him that al-Sistani’s school is cemented.”

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