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Two predictions for our winter

Even with temperatures back into the 90s most of last week, I still found myself thinking of winter.

I think it was the fact that Friday nights “under the lights” had returned to high school gridirons. Maybe it was that college football was back last weekend or that NFL football is returning this week.

Much more likely, however, was the fact I read interesting stories that weather prognosticators have differing opinions on what winter might look like here in Michigan in a few months.

Imagine that. Weather prognosticators not agreeing.

If I decide to end retirement and go back to work anytime soon, I want to be a weather person so I can predict wrong weather 50% of the time yet still keep my job.

But I digress.

In an apparent noteworthy disagreement this year, “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” and “The Farmer’s Almanac” disagree on how much snow the Great Lakes will get this winter.

Now, I’ll be honest here. Until last week, I never knew there were two separate weather publications. Oh, silly me.

Apparently, “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” was established in 1792, while “The Farmer’s Almanac” was first printed in 1818.

All of which is interesting, but what about the weather predictions?

Well, “The Farmer’s Almanac” predicts a snowblower should be in your future, with lots and lots of snow, while “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” said not so fast. Actually, they say the winter is going to be dryer this year.

So, how can two national weather almanacs disagree so vehemently?

According to the news report where I first read of the differing opinions, “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” uses a centuries-old formula for its calculations. The model “uses a mix of solar science and the study of sunspots, climatology and meteorology.”

On the flip side, “The Farmers Almanac” also has its model that it adopted over the years, but that formula can quickly be changed because of the many “mysteries of nature” that can quickly arise and throw everything into a tailspin.

As I sit here proofing those last two paragraphs, I can’t help but envision in my head a fairy tale story, with the forecasters huddled around a cauldron, adding a little sprinkle of magic dust here and a dash of elixir there.

One thing is for sure: With two opposite viewpoints, one publication is going to be right with their prediction for this winter, while the other is going to be quite wrong.

Just between you, me and Punxsutawney Phil, I’m rooting for a dry winter and “The Old Farmer’s Almanac.”

Bill Speer retired in 2021 as the publisher and editor of The News. He can be reached at bspeer@thealpenanews.com.

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