×

Biden, Trump’s Michigan problems

You’ve probably heard of “the $100,000 Pyramid” on TV.

But you’ve never heard of the 100,000-vote pyramid that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have to climb, with failure to do so possibly costing them the White House.

Everybody in this town knew that the two candidates would win their respective primary efforts in Michigan last week, but what everybody did not know was that the two would each lose 100,000 critical voters along the way.

In President Biden’s case, the protest vote of 100,000 who cast ballots for “uncommitted” over Biden’s stance on the Gaza war cost him dearly as those voters sent him a message: Support a ceasefire yesterday, Mr. President, or else, come November, we may cease backing you.

Pollster Bernie Porn reports that the protest vote made up about 13% of the Democratic vote, and “it is not quite as bad as 16 or 17%.” However, he quickly reflects, 74% of all Democrats want an end to the carnage, and losing a big chunk of that number is quite another story and for Biden and it does not end well.

Trump’s 100,000-vote headache was courtesy of one Nikki Haley.

Hanging on for her dear political life, the really longshot GOP candidate got a respectable 27% of the statewide Republican vote, with some crossover help from Democrats voting in the Republican primary. They were either trying to hurt Trump or test-driving the Haley-mobile as an alternative to Biden. Either way, she impressed some pundits by confirming that Trump has mucho problems with college-educated, urban/suburban voters, including women and moderate Republicans who want to fire the former TV host. They rallied to Haley’s sinking ship, keeping it afloat for the moment.

Haley scored 44% of the vote in Washtenaw County. Trump got 45%.

Haley racked up 32% of the Grand Traverse County vote, 35% in Ingham County, and 33% in vote-rich Oakland County, and an incredible 33% in the state’s most conservative bastion, Ottawa County, down on the southern border.

“Those are counties that Trump will need to win in the general election,” opines EPIC-MRA survey guy Porn.

Porn points out that Trump is still winning battleground states without those votes, but, remember, those are primaries, in which his MAGA base provides the humph he needs.

But are there enough of them to get Trump through a November vote in which independents and others will decide the outcome?

As for Biden, Porn believes he has the bigger immediate challenge between the two candidates. Depending on the situation in Gaza as the election approaches, Biden could be sitting pretty if there is peace, but, if the killings continue, he could be toast.

Recall Trump got elected with an 11,000-vote win in Michigan over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden beat Trump here by about 150,000 votes in 2020, so, in another close election — and this contest appears to be blowing in that direction — any loss of votes on either side could be more than problematic. It could spell C-U-R-T-A-I-N-S for either one, since lots of folks assume that, if you lose Michigan, you can’t win nationwide.

Newsletter

Today's breaking news and more in your inbox

I'm interested in (please check all that apply)
Are you a paying subscriber to the newspaper? *
   

Starting at $3.50/week.

Subscribe Today