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Has Trump’s Michigan bubble burst?

The beautiful thing about politics is that there is a surefire way to ascertain the power of politicians.

They call them elections.

Don’t kid yourself. Former President Donald Trump, like that guy on “Jeopardy” who bet everything by shoving both hands forward like they do in Vegas, is betting it all in Michigan. This state has the distinction of being the one state where Mr. Trump has bet the most.

And he put his mouth where his endorsements are last weekend at a rally in Macomb County attended by about 6,000 of his true-blue enthusiasts. He embraced one of his chosen candidates for state attorney general, Matt DePerno, and another for secretary of state, Kristina Karamo, and he has endorsed at least 10 Trumpers running for the Michigan House.

And, come April 23, the whole world will know if Mr. Trump is a champ or a chump, because his choices for AG and SOS will either be chosen or rejected as the state GOP stages its first nomination convention ahead of the August primary.

Pollster Bernie Porn, who has chronicled this game in Michigan for nearly 50 years, is thinking it might be the latter and not the former.

“Are you willing to say that the Trump bubble in Michigan has burst?” he was asked.

Without a pause, he shot back: “Not burst. But it is certainly leaking an awful lot. It may well burst before we know it.”

The moan you just heard across the length and breadth of upper Lower Michigan is from all the stalwarts still in the Trump camp no matter what he does.

But Mr. Porn explains what Mr. Trump says and does is taking its toll on his political prowess.

Take Russia and Ukraine, for example.

Now into its second month of carnage, instead of Mr. Trump verbally endorsing what this country is doing to help the embattled citizens over there, he instead asked Russian President Vladimir Putin not to stop the attacks but rather to offer some help in digging up some dirt on President Joe Biden’s son.

Mr. Trump’s detractors cry out, “Vintage Donald. All about him … again.”

Mr. Porn reflects: “Voters are very supportive of Ukraine and it’s going to be difficult for Donald Trump to keep that connection with Mr. Putin. The things he’s done the last few days have just been stupid.”

Mr. Trump’s backers could care less.

Then there is the U.S. House committee taking a deep dive into the president’s behavior on Jan. 6, that now-infamous day when the U.S. Capitol became a bloody battle ground. Mr. Porn recalls that former President Richard Nixon resigned in part because of a seven-minute gap in some critical audio recordings.

“Donald Trump has a seven-hour gap” in his logs on the day of the Capitol siege, Porn says.

It’s been widely reported that President Biden is in deep trouble in the polls, but Mr. Porn indicates: “The only person less popular than the president is Donald Trump.” He’s at 31% support in Michigan, compared to Mr. Biden’s 40-something percent.

Does this mean all those Michigan candidates basking in the halo of Mr. Trump’s endorsement could not get the pop they hope for at the convention and the primary?

Mr. Porn was asked if Mr. Trump can deliver the base in August.

“I don’t think so. Not to the extent that he would have a year ago or maybe even six months ago. He is diminishing, and the things he continues to say are getting him in trouble, (and) there is too much that is piling up and it’s starting to erode his base.”

Mr. Trump’s backers could care less.

So set your watch for later this month to see if Mr. Trump proves he is the power broker he professes to be or just a run-of-the-mill pol who’s bubble was burst in Michigan.

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