As a journalist, I love numbers and spreadsheets.

Once you’ve got all of the context to make sure you understand what the numbers are telling you, most numbers are almost unimpugnable, a solid foundation on which to build a story.

As a die-hard political junky, the numbers most interesting to me at the moment regard the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission’s analysis of its new maps for Michigan congressional and state legislative districts.

Assuming they survive very likely court challenges, the districts will be used in the 2022 elections.

And those elections could bring big changes to Michigan, according to the numbers.

Currently, Michigan’s 14-member congressional delegation is split seven-seven between Republicans and Democrats, while Republicans control both the state House and the state Senate in districts drawn by the Republican-controlled state Legislature after the 2010 census.

Under the plans approved last week by the bipartisan Redistricting Commission (created by voters in 2018 to take redistricting power away from lawmakers), Democrats could end up with an edge in the congressional delegation (shrunk to 13 because of Michigan’s lackluster performance in the 2020 census) and take control of the state Legislature.

PlanScore, a project of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center, still gives a slight edge to Republicans in the state Legislature, but their analysis shows Democrats still have a far better chance at control than they had under the districts drawn by Republicans.

It’s hard to overstate how monumental a shift we could see if Democrats take control of the Legislature.

As a state, Michigan is deep, deep purple. Of the last 10 governors, five have been Democrats and five Republicans.

Yet, in part because of the way we segregate ourselves (most Democrats cloistered in the cities, Republicans more dominant in rural areas, the suburbs split) and in part because of the way lawmakers have drawn districts, Republicans have controlled the Legislature for decades.

They’ve had control of both chambers in the Legislature and the governorship for 14 out of the last 30 years, something Democrats have never accomplished. Democrats haven’t controlled the state Senate in at least 30 years and last controlled the state House in 2010.

That control is key. The party in control of a chamber gets to name committee chairs. And those committee chairs decide which bills even get a hearing. So, if you’re a Democratic state rep in a House controlled by Republicans and you want to advance a bill with even a hint of controversy, your only victory will be to say that you introduced the bill, because it will die on the vine.

Because every bill has to pass both chambers, the Republicans’ control of the state Senate means Democrats haven’t been able to push any serious agenda in three decades (though there have been some bipartisan wins for liberals, such as an increased minimum wage and expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act).

Democrats have a decent chance to change that under the new maps, meaning Michigan could be a very different place come 2023.

However, none of that change is likely to come from Northeast Michigan, which remains solidly Republican.

According to the Redistricting Commission’s analysis, the counties making up the new 1st Congressional District lean 57.5% Republican, just barely below the 57.9% of the vote that the Daily KO says Republican Donald Trump carried across the current 1st Congressional District in the 2020 contest. Trump won the exact same margin in 2016 and Republican Mitt Romney carried about 54% of the vote in 2012, according to the Daily KO.

The new district also leans a bit less Republican than the nearly 62% of the vote our Republican incumbent congressman, Jack Bergman, received in November 2020.

Under the new maps, Northeast Michigan remains in the 36th state Senate District currently occupied by state Sen. Jim Stamas, R-Midland, although Midland County is no longer part of the district. According to the Redistricting Commission, the district remains 62% to 38% Republican, a bit less than the 64% Stamas took in 2018.

While Northeast Michigan is currently split between the 106th and 105th state House Districts, the new maps put it entirely in the 106th, represented currently by state Rep. Sue Allor, R-Wolverine. The Redistricting Commission says the new district is 61% to 39% Republican. Allor last won in 2020 with 69% of the vote.

In short, while Northeast Michigan Democrats are likely to have a bigger share of the vote total, they’re unlikely to win any of the legislative seats representing the region.

Justin A. Hinkley can be reached at 989-354-3112 or jhinkley@thealpenanews.com. Follow him on Twitter @JustinHinkley.