“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” Someone has said that to you at one time or another, and it’s true – be it economics or anything else.

The best current example harkens back to before WWII. In the late 1930s there was a recession in the middle of the depression. A major export at that time was scrap iron and steel to Japan. The Japanese needed the scrap to for iron and steel because they didn’t have any iron ore in the country. Today’s scrap export to Asia is paper and cardboard. China doesn’t have too many forests left.

The Japanese in the 1930s were trying to work out of the depression though government spending. Japan was investing in products for war. It’s kind of ironic that I’m writing this the day after Pearl Harbor Day because some of that reformed scrap came back to us on Dec.7, 1941. We shipped them scrap and they sent it back as bombs and bullets. We helped the Japanese war effort.

The very same thing is happening in Syria with ISIS today. Pre-WWII we shipped scrap. During the current Middle-Eastern fracas, Europe is buying oil from that region while fighting a war there. Since ISIS controls some of the oil fields and uses that revenue to finance their war expenses, Europe is, in reality, financing a war against themselves. Sir Walter Scott summed it up over 200 years ago: “Oh, what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive.”

You probably noticed our so-called allies aren’t bombing the oil fields. Sort of the first order of business in war is to cripple the enemy’s economy but we didn’t. The Russians arrived on the scene and started to destroy the oil infrastructure. What gives?

Well, the Russians are very large oil and gas exporters themselves and have the infrastructure to supply those needs. In addition, with the free-fall of the value of the Ruble, they need some exports to help their economy. The economic winner is Russia while the loser is Europe. Meanwhile the U.S. stands on the sidelines. In economics: “Follow the money.”

Back during the Great Depression, which lasted about the same amount of time as our Great Recession, Keynesian economics were used to get the economy going again. Then, as now, it took a very long time to recover. Something new is happening now, however. As this column has stated before, Keynesian economics is about the money supply which is largely manipulated by interest rates.

The Federal Reserve Board is worried about more than 2 percent inflation and has the bank overnight interest rate effectively at zero. They are planning on raising the rate to fight non-existent inflation and to hold down the rate of economic expansion. Of course, in northern Michigan, we would just like to see some expansion.

In Europe, the problem is different. They aren’t growing and their central bank is lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy. Always before, the interest rates in America and in Europe rose and fell in tandem.

The inflation numbers and the unemployment numbers for both regions are not really very different. One has pushed rates down and the other is planning on increasing rates later this month from all indications. Probably neither move will have much effect.

In the good old US of A, lower energy prices in natural gas and gasoline have buoyed the economy. If oil fields are ravaged, then oil prices will climb, reversing low pump prices and lowering the amount of personal disposable income. This will dampen the economy as will the higher interest rates proposed by the FED. The incredibly strong dollar will stifle exports. We could very well drop us back into a recession. The European lowering of rates probably won’t have any effect as they have just picked up a couple of million refugees who will take part in their lavish social benefits packages.

Lastly, there has been much to do about U.S. companies relocating to take advantage of lower tax rates. Companies act just like people – they don’t like to spend more than they have to. Retirees gravitate to Florida, Texas, and Wyoming because they are warm, scenic, and have no income tax. (Four more too: AL, SD, WA, NV). Companies go to Ireland because the tax rate is less than one third of the U.S. rate. There is no quicker way for a company or a person to have a greater amount of disposable income than to pay less tax.

Sometimes, when Mom and Dad retired near Orlando or Brownsville, there was more to it than just warmer weather. The companies which relocate overseas are called “anti-American.” Are Mom and Dad “anti-Michigan,” or just smarter than you thought?