Alpena sees 14th-warmest October on record amid El Niño pattern

ALPENA - October was milder and slightly drier than normal across Alpena County, with the month ranking as the 14th-warmest on record at the Alpena airport, according to the National Weather Service.

The average temperature for the month reached 51.1 degrees Fahrenheit, or 3.7 degrees above the long-term normal, meteorologist Eleanor Delizio of the National Weather Service's Gaylord office said in an interview. Highs climbed to 75 degrees on both Oct. 11 and Oct. 12, though neither day broke a daily record. The record high for Oct. 11 is 87 degrees, and the record for Oct. 12 is 85 degrees.

Precipitation totaled 2.10 inches at the airport, about 0.91 inches below normal. "We were slightly below normal when it comes to our rainfall and our precipitation for Alpena," Delizio said. Wind was also quieter than usual: October ranked as the 11th-calmest on record, though a gust of 35 mph was recorded on Oct. 8.

The mild, relatively dry pattern was driven by a stronger El Niño, Delizio said. Warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have shifted the storm track southward, allowing milder Pacific air masses to move into the northern tier of the country while directing heavier precipitation farther south.

"That's pretty classic when it comes to an El Niño setup - the moisture, the storm track, some of that stuff moves a little bit more to our south. We stay milder and a little bit drier up here," Delizio said. She pointed to recent flooding in the desert Southwest as an example of the same pattern producing heavy rain farther south.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for November through January leans toward above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the region, Delizio said. That outlook covers both rainfall and snowfall. "For our three-month outlook, so for November, December and January, yes, we lean above normal for our temperature outlook and below normal for our precipitation," she said.

Even with the overall warmth, Alpena still saw five nights with temperatures below freezing. Overnight lows reached 28 degrees on Oct. 17 and again on Oct. 31, with additional readings of 31 degrees on Oct. 18 and Oct. 20. Delizio noted that the first freeze arrived roughly in line with normal timing. "Our normal lows get to freezing closer to the end of the month," she said, adding that average lows are typically around 33 degrees by Oct. 29-31. Temperatures can vary across the county, she noted.

On fall foliage, Delizio cautioned that the National Weather Service is not the primary expert on leaf color. However, she said the combination of milder temperatures, relatively dry conditions and periods of sunshine may have influenced the season, while gusty winds elsewhere on the peninsula caused some leaves to drop quickly once they turned.

"The true peak colors, where everything is kind of all peaking together, I think was a little hit or miss across the peninsula this year, just because winds kind of interrupted that," Delizio said. She added that the fall "was a different fall when looking at the year before and the year before that."

Drought conditions remain limited in the immediate Alpena area. Delizio said the county is currently showing no drought or only D0 (abnormally dry) status on the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, dryness is expanding southward from the tip of the mitt into Presque Isle County, and the Upper Peninsula has seen ongoing drought concerns that began in the summer. "There have been some drought areas that have been growing," she said, while noting that significant impacts have not yet reached Alpena itself.

Looking ahead, rain chances are in the forecast over the next several days, though amounts are expected to be lighter in the Alpena area than farther west and north. Better rainfall totals are forecast across the Upper Peninsula and into Wisconsin with systems moving through Tuesday into Thursday, Delizio said.

Overall, Delizio said the October pattern fits the broader El Niño-driven setup the region has seen, with milder air masses replacing the colder continental or Arctic air that more typically reaches northern Michigan this time of year. "We're getting stuff straight from the Pacific, and even the stuff that's coming down from Canada is a little bit milder of an air mass," she said. "We can still get freezing conditions, as we've seen in October... but it is just a little bit milder overall."

The National Weather Service continues to monitor precipitation patterns because of the potential for drought to expand or contract depending on how the remaining fall and early winter storms track. While the longer-term outlook favors below-normal precipitation, individual systems can still bring rain or snow to the area.