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LANSING - Michigan voters are being inundated with political advertisements as campaigns, political parties and outside groups spend millions of dollars in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
The ads seem nearly impossible to avoid on television, streaming services, social media and in mailboxes, raising a question that political scientists have debated for decades: Do campaign ads actually change voters' minds?
Research suggests the effects of campaign advertising are often much smaller than voters might expect, said Yanna Krupnikov, a professor of communication and media at the University of Michigan.
"Some of the largest studies on advertising show that the effects are, honestly, at best tiny," Krupnikov said.
Rather than convincing voters to switch sides, political advertisements are more likely to reinforce opinions people already hold, she said.
"Nobody's like, 'Oh, I love this candidate. Oh, here's an ad. I'll vote totally differently,’" Krupnikov said. "Maybe after a ton of exposure voters move slightly within their existing views, but it's definitely within your existing predisposition."
Still, campaigns continue to spend millions on advertising because even modest effects can influence competitive races, said John Clark, a political science professor at Western Michigan University.
"When you've got really close elections, you don't need to move very many votes in order to win," Clark said. "Even if you can just affect a small number of voters, that might be enough to have an impact on the race in Michigan."
Clark said campaign ads may be more effective at influencing whether people vote than persuading them to support a different candidate. Negative advertising, he said, can weaken enthusiasm for a candidate and discourage some voters from turning out on Election Day.
The volume of advertising has reached unprecedented levels in Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate race, said Neil Thanedar, the executive director of the Michigan Campaign Finance Network.
"This will be the most expensive race in Michigan history and also one of the most expensive Senate races nationwide," Thanedar said.
Much of that money is coming from organizations outside the candidates' own campaigns. Thanedar said direct campaign fundraising often represents only a fraction of total election spending, while outside groups account for most of the advertising dollars flowing into competitive races.
Television remains the dominant advertising platform in statewide races, though campaigns increasingly use streaming and digital advertisements to target voters more precisely, he said. Those platforms can be especially useful in legislative races, where television markets are often much larger than individual districts.
The growing role of outside groups can make it difficult for voters to determine who is actually paying for the messages they see.
"The number-one thing that voters can do is check the paid-for label at the end of every ad," Thanedar said.
Even then, identifying the original source of funding can require significant investigation. Thanedar said some organizations operate through multiple layers, making it difficult to trace where advertising dollars originate.
While campaign advertising saturates voters' screens and mailboxes, research suggests voters are often more skeptical of the messages than campaigns may hope.
Krupnikov said, "People have a remarkable capacity to be skeptical about advertising. Voters regularly encounter advertising in many forms and generally recognize when someone is trying to persuade them."
Krupnikov said voters should apply that same skepticism to political advertising and think critically about whether campaigns are highlighting issues because they are important to voters or because they benefit a candidate.
Clark said voters should view campaign advertisements as the beginning of their research, not the end of it.
Ads may contain useful information, he said, but voters should still examine who paid for them and whether claims hold up under scrutiny.
Asked whether campaign advertisements actually change voters' minds, Clark offered a simple answer:
"Only if people let them."