HUNTING GUIDE 2021: Deer hunting forecast
This year commemorates the 100th anniversary of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources.
Through Public Act 17 of 1921, the Michigan legislature created the State Department of Conservation, the ancestor to today’s Department of Natural Resources.
One constant through those 100 years has been deer management.
In fact, deer management in Michigan preceded the creation of today’s DNR. The first deer regulation was developed in 1859, which eliminated year-round hunting and set a seven-month season for taking deer.
By 1895, deer hunters were required to have a license and the season dates were shortened to November 1 to 25, with a bag limit of five deer. Those laws were developed to dramatically control market hunting at the time.
After the Department of Conservation was formed, one of the goals was to grow the deer herd after years of being suppressed by market hunting. In 1921, a “buck only” law was passed that prohibited the take of antlerless deer. In 1925, the season dates were changed to November 15 to 30, dates that modern-day Michigan firearm deer hunters will surely recognize.
By 1930, the “buck only” law was so successful that an abundance of deer was being recognized in some northern areas. While deer hunting was closed in southern Michigan from 1930 to1941, the population grew in the northern forests, which were seeing the impacts of over a decade without antlerless harvest and unchecked growth.
By 1943, for the first time in 70 years, deer could be found in every county in Michigan.
The deer herd continued to grow over time and seemed to peak in the 1990s.
In 1998, a record harvest of nearly 600,000 deer occurred. The deer herd doesn’t seem to be as big as it was then, but, if history has taught us anything, it’s that the deer herd can grow rapidly over time.
Many of the changes in deer regulations over the past several years have been implemented to attempt to curb growth that is being seen throughout much of the Lower Peninsula, where most of Michigan’s deer and deer hunters reside.
2021 DEER REGULATIONS AND MANAGEMENT RATIONALE
The 2021 regulation changes, which include allowing harvest of antlerless deer on the deer and deer combination license during the firearms and muzzleloader seasons, and the new universal antlerless license that allows hunters to use their antlerless license in any open unit, has been met with a wide range of response.
Some are excited about the flexibility to use licenses in a variety of areas and for a variety of deer. Others are pleased with the savings, no longer having to apply for an antlerless license or perhaps even purchase an antlerless license, with the ability to now harvest an antlerless deer on a combination tag during the firearms season.
To those hunters who are excited about these changes, that is exactly why those changes were made, and we hope you enjoy the newfound freedom and flexibility of using your licenses and choosing how and where you harvest your deer throughout the season.
Other hunters are concerned that the lack of quotas, increased flexibility, and increased opportunity will lead to a widespread devastation and overharvest of the deer herd.
It’s understandable why that would cause concern. Michigan has had a long, historic timeframe where the management paradigm was based on quotas, only to be changed in the space of a year to a new paradigm.
To those hunters who have this concern, we can only attempt to show you the data we used to make our decisions.
While the department is confident the regulation changes won’t devastate any county’s deer herd, we do recognize that there may be added pressure in some locations in the county, making hunting more difficult.
Truth be told, we didn’t have the ability to micromanage hunter distribution within a county previously under our quota system. For example, there was nothing stopping the 843 public land antlerless license holders in Benzie County in 2020 from descending on the same parcel of public land in the same week.
But we know that hunters by and large regulate themselves in terms of both harvest and spatial use, and, while some areas may see slight levels of overharvest with the new changes, we feel that the changes will lead to improvements in management at the countywide level.
So, what data was used to evaluate some of these changes, specifically with the new universal antlerless license that is available for the first time this year?
For one, we know that not many deer hunters in Michigan even purchase an antlerless license. In 2020, 65% of hunters did not purchase an antlerless license. Another 24% only purchased one. In fact, only 2% of hunters purchase more than four antlerless licenses in 2020.
Some of that is probably a function of the changes last year to allow antlerless deer to be taken during the firearms and muzzleloader season on the deer and combination license. In 2019, 59% of hunters did not purchase an antlerless license, while 30% purchased one, and still only 2% purchased four or more licenses. While there was some change in buying practices in 2020 vs. 2019, it wasn’t very much.
With the changes made last year, the antlerless deer harvest in the Lower Peninsula increased by nearly 26% in 2020 compared to 2019.
While that sounds like a dramatic increase, it’s worth putting perspective behind that increase. While the 184,398 antlerless deer harvested in the Lower Peninsula dramatically exceeded what was harvested in recent years, one only has to go back to 2011 to find a higher antlerless harvest.
Prior to that, Michigan hunters routinely harvested around or more than 200,000 antlerless deer in the Lower Peninsula alone.
Some might say that the reduced antlerless harvest today is a function of fewer deer than existed in the 2000s, and, while there might be some truth to that, it’s worth noting that Lower Peninsula hunters typically harvested near even numbers of bucks and does in the 2000s. While buck harvest has slowed slightly in recent years, probably largely explained by the loss of nearly 200,000 hunters in Michigan since the 2000s, antlerless harvest has declined more rapidly.
The regulation changes today are meant to attempt to restore antlerless harvest levels back in-line with antlered harvest to achieve a more balanced sex ratio.
In DMU 487, Michigan’s bovine tuberculosis area, a discounted license will again be sold for those six counties (Alcona, Montmorency, Oscoda, Presque Isle, and Iosco County).
Hunters wishing only to hunt in that area can purchase the discounted license good for all six counties or purchase a universal antlerless license that is good in that location as well as other counties in the state open to antlerless harvest.
While on the topic of our TB management area, let’s compare the impact of deer regulations that have been liberalized for years because of the presence of bovine TB in that area.
Those areas, despite nearly unlimited quotas for decades, average less than four antlerless deer harvested per square mile over recent history. With an expected decline of 100,000 Michigan deer hunters in the next 10 years or so, combined with the deer’s reproductive potential, finding ways to manage deer with a reduced hunting population is an important approach that has led to the changes you see today.
A lot of this talk has focused on the Lower Peninsula, but the Upper Peninsula will experience changes this year, as well.
The universal antlerless license will be an option for hunters hunting in the southern part of the UP, where deer are essentially considered non-migratory. Though those areas can certainly still experience difficult winters, they also have lower hunter numbers than many locations in the Lower Peninsula.
Certainly, locations like Menominee County and parts of Dickinson County continue to have abundant deer numbers, and many of the statements above can apply to those areas.
Other locations open to the antlerless license, such as DMUs 022, 121, 122, 155, and 255, have smaller deer densities than DMU 055, but also fewer deer hunters, as well. About 19,000 hunters hunt those five units combined, across more than 2,000 square miles of land.
That means that, on average, those units only experience about nine hunters per square mile throughout the hunting season.
Compare that to downstate, where places like Mecosta County (DMU 054) still experience more than 20 hunters per square mile, the level of pressure is completely different.
Throughout the mid-snowfall zone of the UP, antlerless opportunities will exist for all archery hunters and some lucky firearm hunters. Hunters had the opportunity to apply for a Midwest and Mideast Access Permit, that, if successfully drawn, they could use their universal antlerless license for in each specified region. That is a new concept meant to maintain the flexibility of the universal antlerless license, while still limiting participation in sensitive areas.
Again, it’s certain that some hunters will view any antlerless harvest in those areas as potentially damaging, given their current level of concern for deer populations in the area.
With quotas set at 1,000 in each unit, and average success rates for UP hunters being about 36%, we would anticipate no more than 350 to 360 antlerless deer being taken in each unit. With nearly 3,000 square miles in the west and more than 3,700 square miles in the east, that roughly translates to one antlerless deer for every 10 square miles.
So, while the concept of antlerless harvest might be new and perhaps worrisome in some of these locations, by no means will it be damaging to the overall population.
One final note is that Michigan is testing an online harvest reporting system this year, and we are encouraging successful hunters to record the information about the harvest of their deer and provide feedback.
The online reporting will expedite the information available and allow staff to give near-real-time reports on how the season is progressing. With this being the first year of testing the system, it’s important to understand how the functionality is received by hunters across the state.
Feel free to contact your local biologist at a check station or visit our website at Michigan.gov/Deer to report your harvest and help improve deer management in the future.
With all that stated, our deer population is thriving throughout much of the state, and the below regional preview will hopefully get everyone excited for the upcoming season.
Information was provided by DNR Wildlife staff from across the state who have a great understanding of the trends seen in their coverage area. Their expertise and input have been invaluable in putting together the observations summarized below:
NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA
In the 2020 hunting season, the northern Lower Peninsula saw an estimated harvest of 135,906 deer, which was up 7% from 2019. While buck harvest declined about 5%, from 68,168 in 2019 to 64,725 last year, antlerless harvest increased by 21%, with over 12,000 additional antlerless deer taken in 2020 than in 2019.
The winter of 2020 didn’t seem to have adverse effects on the deer herd in the northern Lower Peninsula, due to fewer periods of extreme cold and an overall shorter winter. Another important factor that ensured winter survival was that forest management practices (new growth of young trees and leaving treetops from harvested trees) provided plenty of winter browse for deer throughout the winter.
The mast crop (nuts, seeds, and fruits) in the northern Lower Peninsula this year looks good, except in places that were impacted by gypsy moth infestations. Those areas are not likely to see much in terms of acorn production.
Elsewhere, acorns and soft mast, including apples in old homestead sites, blackberries, and hawthorn are all producing nicely.
Deer numbers look very good in many locations, though it’s important to point out that deer are not evenly distributed across the landscape, and certain areas may hold fewer deer than others.
Overall, staff are seeing good fawn production this year, with many twins trailing does.
The spring and summer rains seemed to provide optimal forage for deer, and the bucks have been turning that into nice antler growth. There are some reports of people seeing better bucks relative to recent years, something hunters can start getting excited about.
Some locations have noted that there is still a long way to go towards balancing the buck to doe ratio, so hunters are encouraged to take advantage of new regulations that allow antlerless deer to be taken on the deer and/or deer combination license during firearms and muzzleloader seasons.
Bovine TB surveillance is still a priority in the region, with testing occurring in the primary counties of Alpena, Alcona, Montmorency, and Oscoda, but also in all surrounding counties as well (Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Otsego, Crawford, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Iosco).
TB is a significant threat to the livestock industry, and hunters wanting to do their part to assist with surveillance can have their deer tested at any deer check station this year.
UPPER PENINSULA
Last year was challenging for UP deer hunters, with overall harvest down nearly 6% from 2019, and buck harvest down nearly 11%.
Though harvest numbers are not to the lows experienced in 2014 to 2016 after the severe winters in 2013 to 2015 that impacted harvest, they are down from harvest numbers in 2017 and 2018.
The 2020 UP winter was far milder than normal, which was a welcome respite for the deer population. The fast spring green-up meant that many adult deer were able to recover quickly from the tolls of winter. With abundant mast production in the fall of 2020, deer headed into winter in overall good shape. Population trends seem to be on the upswing this year for the UP.
Mast production this year seems very spotty. Look for areas with oaks producing acorns, as they are sure to attract deer. Buck numbers seem to be improving, but there are still areas where persistence is going to be necessary to be successful. Overall fawn production seems to be good. With the new changes allowing antlerless deer to be taken in the lower two-thirds of the peninsula, hunters have an increased opportunity to fill their freezer for what is hopefully another mild winter ahead.
The department is still focusing on chronic wasting disease surveillance in southern Dickinson County after the first case of CWD was detected in the Upper Peninsula in 2018.
For hunters interested in getting their deer tested, check out the “For Hunters” tab at Michigan.gov/CWD to view the map of the priority area in the Upper Peninsula.






