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Scientists predict trouble for infrastructure in changing climate

A tractor appears in the 2021 News file photo

ALPENA — Northeast Michigan is getting warmer, climate records show.

The increase in temperature isn’t telling the whole story, though, as Michigan scientists say drastic climate swings between hot and cold and wet and dry cause issues for area farmers and existing infrastructure.

The National Weather Service says the Alpena region’s annual average temperature over the last five years was 44.9 degrees, up from 43.7 degrees during the 30-year span from 1981 to 2010 that climatologists use to benchmark a normal climate.

Within the last five years, Northeast Michigan fell into moderate drought in 2016 and 2017, had low temperatures tens of degrees below zero, and received nearly a foot more rain annually, according to Weather Service records.

Richard Rood, a University of Michigan climate researcher, said air temperatures will continue to gradually climb, which will affect roads, bridges, and other key infrastructure. Frequent freeze and thaw cycles shorten the lifespan of roads. Rising lake waters and onshore flooding have already caused thousands of dollars in damage to sidewalks, a pier, and things like volleyball courts in Alpena.

Rood said municipalities and property owners should brace for more repairs.

“Houses, dams, roads, and bridges were designed for weather 30 to 50 years ago, but our climate is much different now,” Rood told The News. “Right now, homes are not designed for what is to come. The climate is changing so fast our current infrastructure is not viable.”

‘WE HAD 1,300 ACRES HIT’

Waylon Smolinski co-owns Smolinski Green Acres Farm and Feed in Lachine and plants on 2,600 acres.

He said farming has been in his blood since he was a little boy, and he has witnessed firsthand a change in weather patterns in recent years. He said severe weather has impacted his crops on several occasions, twice when hail storms wiped out large portions of his fields.

“We got two inches of rain and it was awesome, because it was a rough year, but then the neighbor called and told me we better check the field,” Smolinski said. “We had 1,300 acres hit, which was half our acreage at the time, and it was sickening. We barely got through that year. It was bad. We wanted the rain, but not frozen.”

Amazingly, another hail storm hit the same portion of the farm only a year later.

“It was the same exact path, and we were told it would be a one-in-a-billion chance it would happen like that again,” Smolinski said. ” We lost another 1,300 acres.”

To combat weather trends, farmers till the ground less and utilize hybrid seeds. Smolinski said planting when the soil is dry on the surface and damp underneath is common practice now.

The increase in precipitation has caused moisture that can lead to insect infestations. Smolinski said his farm is a test farm for Michigan State University Extension, so insects — like Michigan bean cutworms — are trapped and counted and the data is used to find remedies for the problem.

“They are calling for it to be warmer than normal again,” Smolinski said. “They are talking about the El Nino, so it sounds like it will be dry. We are getting ready for it, already.”

Waylon Smolinski talks about the effects of changing weather patterns on his farm. Story continues below video.

‘NO SUCH THING AS A NORMAL YEAR, ANYMORE’

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers predicts Great Lakes water levels will remain near record highs this summer.

That’s bad news for shoreline communities. In September 2019, for example, Alpena spent more than $12,000 to clean up fallen branches and other debris and repair infrastructure after storms, City Engineer Rich Sullenger said.

That amount, he said, was well above normal.

But experts say farmers are perhaps most impacted by the inconsistent weather patterns.

They deal with excessive rain and increasingly hot temperatures during the summer. Significant precipitation coming in heavy bursts can oversaturate soil.

Paul Gross, an MSU Extension educator on crop and soil health, works with farmers in Northeast Michigan. He said farmers rarely see normal or average weather, anymore. He said wet, cold, or hot weather cycles are slowly turning from moderate to extreme.

Warmer temperatures have also provided some extended seasons, too, and allowing some farmers to work in the field into November, he said. And some farmers are able to plant crops they couldn’t plant before.

But other effects have hurt.

If soil is too oversaturated from rain, for example, farmers could be forced to start planting later, and, if the cold moves in too soon, that shortens the growing season even more.

“The produce system is built on a normal year, but there is no such thing as a normal year, anymore,” Gross said. “We have seen torrential rain, moderate drought, and they have impacted crop yields. Because of the rain, the growing season is shrinking for many farmers, and the impact is across the board.”

Annual average temperatures

A look at Alpena’s average annual temperature over the last five years. The annual average between 1981 and 2010 — the 30-year period climatologists use to benchmark a normal climate — was 44 degrees.

2015: 44.3 degrees

2016: 46.6 degrees

2017: 45.6 degrees

2018: 44.4 degrees

2019: 42.7 degrees

2020: 45.9 degrees

Source: National Weather Service

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