I have been asked to share my thoughts on what the Northeast Michigan economy will look like in the future.

That is a fair inquiry for someone in the business of economic development. There is only one problem with me attempting to answer this question … My crystal ball stopped working a long time ago.

When Justin Hinkley asked me to write this guest column, my initial thought was, how could I know such things? If I had the ability to predict the future, I would surely have placed a large bet on the Chicago Cubs, back in 2016, to have won the World Series.

I will begin by looking at the economic situation today.

We have elements that are favorable and will shape the economic future, we also have challenges that will limit options and interest.

POSITIVES

There are several things that work in our favor with respect to the future. Among the positives are the quality of life offered to those that live in Northeast Michigan. Quality of life encompasses many elements, including population density (or lack thereof), cost of living, recreational opportunities, crime rate, job opportunities, quality education, and access to health care, to name but a few. Northeast Michigan scores well on all those major areas.

MyMichigan Health’s acquisition of the Alpena hospital was a big step forward for the region. The investments into our local hospital since the merger has been a boon for all of us. Health care matters to most of us, and we have taken a giant leap forward.

Additionally, we have the added benefits of a more diverse economy, with a balance between manufacturing, tourism, and service jobs.

A century ago, this area was built around a manufacturing economy. As the world shrank and manufacturing jobs shifted, our area began the painful process of shifting toward a tourism and more of a service-based economy.

We are fortunate to have several strong manufacturing companies operating locally, including Omni and their related companies, Besser Co., Decorative Panels International, Lafarge North America, Cadillac Automotive Products, Carmeuse Lime and Stone, and Panel Processing, to name but a few.

The challenge will be for those companies to have access to the people with the skills needed to operate in a more competitive and automated world.

The Alpena Combat Readiness Training Center (and their potentially expanding mission) could make the base a more important military asset and enhance its impact on our economic future. Enhanced training capabilities, the dedicated military air space, and the potential for vertical satellite launches occurring in nearby Oscoda represent future opportunities. Should the Federal Aviation Administration grant a license for Oscoda to conduct horizontal launches, the need for technical and engineering professionals in our region will grow. The airport and related airspace make this area more convenient for those that like to or need to travel professionally or recreationally.

Among the assets we possess in Northeast Michigan is Alpena Community College. Their outstanding value proposition serves students throughout the region. Having ACC located here does and will continue to support the area for decades to come. The school is nimble enough to adapt to a changing area. We need to support their goal of being able to offer four-year degrees in nursing, which aligns well with the growth of MyMichigan Medical Center Alpena.

The final positive is momentum creates momentum.

The interest in our area is stronger than any time since I have been here. Our downtown has never looked better. There is so much more interest in our downtown, which draws more visitors and leads to further development inquiries. The better our downtown, the better and more attractive our area becomes.

The possibility of another hotel or two in the downtown will bring more great dining and shopping options. Likewise, as more businesses appear out on M-32, more developers will look at the area, since many of those businesses draw customers from all over northern Michigan into our region. The increased traffic will absolutely create more inquiries into the region as an area to potentially invest.

NEGATIVES

When I moved here from Chicago, I came from an area that had housing subdivisions being built everywhere. When my family and I came up to Alpena in the summer of 1997, I was expecting to find many home choices and new subdivisions.

I was wrong.

I was fortunate that a spec home was recently completed that we were able to purchase.

Today, our local builders are not building spec homes. The primary reason is most are too busy building custom homes for clients and do not have the time to build a home on speculation that someone will want it. Traditionally, there is risk in building a home in the hopes someone will like it and want to buy it.

That is a problem we need to solve for this region to move ahead and realize our potential. The situation is impacting our entire region, from Gaylord to Cheboygan to Alpena. There is not enough housing to meet the demand.

Lack of interstate access to the area also represents a regional challenge. That is a double-edged sword. The lack of population and visitor density makes this a more attractive area to those trying to avoid hustle and bustle. It also makes the area more difficult to get material in and out of for someone running a business.

You do not get to Alpena by accident. You must want to be here to get here.

As mentioned earlier, the quality of life has made our area more attractive in recent years. If you recently visited the other side of the state, it is much more congested. The traffic, along with rising home prices, have caused some living west of I-75 to consider relocating to get away from the hustle and bustle and the expense of living there.

We are seeing more interest in our part of the state. The plans to enhance fiber access throughout the region makes the area more viable for people to live and work remotely from Northeast Michigan. Our endless trails, access to health care, shopping and dining, woods, and water, along with the Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary, makes our area unique. We enjoy all of that without the crowds or traffic and much lower housing costs.

Based upon what I have presented, there are more positives than negatives for our region, which gives me an optimistic view that the next decade economically will be better than the last.

That is not to imply that the last decade was not good, since I do believe we made great progress on many fronts.

In the last 20 years, we have seen development along M-32 and the north end of U.S.-23 and points in between. That development has accelerated in the last decade.

THE FUTURE

So, now on to my predictions for the next five-, 10-, and 20-year periods.

I would expect to see the tide of population losses abate. The interest in the area, for the reasons cited above, make the area attractive to the full spectrum of persons across the adult age continuum. The nice pace to life, access to the outdoors and water (which is in short supply for parts of the western U.S.), the transition in many companies to allow employees to work from home, and the fiber rollout across the rural parts of our region make living and working here much easier. Access to quality health care makes the area better suited for young families and older citizens that tend to be greater users of the health care system.

In terms of jobs, I believe the trend toward service-oriented jobs will continue.

I would expect MyMichigan Medical Center Alpena’s influence to grow (along with the various jobs) as we attract more citizens (density) to the area, draw from further parts of the region (market share), and accounting for an aging population base. As the mean age increases, so will the need for health care. For those reasons, I would expect to see jobs related to health care grow across our region.

I also expect the area to continue to draw more tourists, so the businesses related to supporting tourism should see job growth in the next decade.

While we are fortunate to have several manufacturers operating in the area, many continue to have a tough time finding workers locally. I would expect that the influx of newcomers to the area will help them fill some of the manufacturing openings, but I would expect that to be at a rate slower than the service sector growth.

Long-term quality job growth will require more specialized skills that I would hope and expect ACC to be positioned to be able to address over time.

I see so many positive signs for the region. The tide is turning. I see more interest from young college graduates originally from the area expressing interest and a desire to move back to the region. That is critical for the region’s long-term sustainability.

As a father of three and grandfather of four, I would love to see my children and grandchildren move back to the Alpena area. I believe improvements to the economic components of our region make it far more viable than was the case 20 years ago. I see that trend continuing into the next decade and longer.

Time will tell if my crystal ball should be retained or repurposed as a boat anchor.

Mike Mahler is economic development director for the Alpena Area Chamber of Commerce.